snowball 2022-09-23 08:50:11 阅读数:299
I. China Mining Resourcescore minutes of the conference call
1. Our future plan of 25,000 tons is just the beginning, and 35,000 tons is not the ultimate goal. We should improve it step by step.In the later stage, capacity and resources will match each other for expansion.
2.5+3.5+2+2=100,000 tons of lithium salt
2. All costs of producing lithium salts are quantified.
A: More than 20,000 yuan is the cost of smelting, and the ore itself has a cost. The cost of ore in Zimbabwe is estimated to be US$525/ton. The total cost of smelting and ore adds up to 60,000. The cost of TANCO is expected to be less than US$900.It is estimated that the total cost is more than 70,000.
Ore in Zimbabwe: The full output will reach 66,000 tons by the end of 2023, satisfied.The company's demand for 66,000 tons of lithium carbonate.
Calculated based on 400,000 lithium salts.Profit per ton: 400,000 - cost 60,000 - value-added tax 44,200 - income tax 75,000 = 220,000.
6.6*22=14.5 billion profit.(Note, roughly every 100,000 yuan increase in lithium salt price affects net profit of 60,000 yuan).
T Mine doesn't have much production now, so I won't give an estimate.In the later stage, the local production line of 20,000 tons, as well as the production line of 20,000 tons of Mine B, will be two years later.
2. Conclusion: The company's valuation in the fourth quarter of next year can be estimated at 66,000 tons.This output is equivalent to more than half of Tianqi Lithium's self-produced mines.It is equivalent to the self-produced mine of Ganfeng Lithium.It is impossible to give half of the valuation of Tian Lithium or Ganfeng Lithium.The target price is 200 yuan per share.The benefits of China Mining's increase in reserves are now, the next benefit is to increase production, open more mines, and deliver 10,000-20,000 tons of lithium mines a year, increasing profits by 2-3 billion
Three, the technical trend, the standard main rising wave market, the adjustment after 100 yuan has not reached 20%, which is the characteristic of long bull stocks.It has risen for six consecutive quarters, reaching new highs in each quarter.No sell signal.
Fourth, another promising stock
$Tianqi Lithium (SZ002466)$Tianqi Lithium, calculated at 100,000 tons in 2023, the price500,000, and the net profit per ton is 300,000+.The annual profit is 30 billion.The 8 times valuation is 240 billion, and there is a 30% increase.